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“We still believe the management team is heading in the right direction, with improving enterprise sales, a more favorable business mix… and a focus on consumer fiber-to-the-home,” the analyst wrote. Luebchow is concerned that the company may decrease its dividend payment as new management potentially revisits the dividend to give Lumen “more flexibility to invest in growth.”

Lumen pays a quarterly dividend of 25 cents a share. The stock was also on pace for its largest percent decrease since February, and has fallen 43% in 2022, on pace for its worst year since 1974. Shares of Lumen fell 10% Wednesday to $7.22 and were on track for their lowest close since September 1991.

“We could see near-term downside in the event of a dividend cut, although we think the stock could rebound as revenue and Ebitda trends begin to improve.” “We believe improving enterprise sales and investments in consumer fiber-to-the-home will be offset by continued questions around the sustainability of capital allocation framework, particularly its $1 billion/year dividend,” Luebchow wrote in a research note.
